16:19 Ffos Las tips
Novice Stakesclass 47½fheavy4 runners
What we lean towardsclear pick
Aerial Silk is our standout. It rates well clear of the rest, mainly on its standing on published form ratings.
Novice Stakes over 7½f on heavy going. Aerial Silk rates clear of the rest on our signals. We rate 3 of the 4 declared; the other 1 lack enough recent form for us to judge.
How we rate the field
1
Aerial Silk
Saffie Osborne / David Menuisier
2.4/1
- Price drops have been easing off across its last 4 runs, down to a 33% average.
2/1 to 5/1: 21.0% win, 40.2% frame (739 tracked)
2
Circle Of Secrets
Laura Coughlan / Fergal O´Brien
9/1
- Its price has drifted across its last 3, averaging 39% out, though the drift has been easing each run.
- Back after 167 days, well beyond its usual 51-day gap.
8/1 to 12/1: 8.0% win, 26.8% frame (709 tracked)
3
Just Johnny
Jack Nicholls / Alan Jones
21/1
- Price drops have been easing off across its last 3 runs, down to a 55% average.
- Quick turnaround at 83 days against its usual 199.
- Carries 9lb less than last time.
20/1 to 50/1: 2.0% win, -43% return over 1,150 tracked. Our weakest band.
Not rated: Lucky Radar — too little recent form to judge.