17:20 Newcastle tips
Novice Stakesclass 47fstandard9 runners
What we lean towardspreferred
Regal Desire is our pick, though Hozam is not far behind. It edges it on the size of its price drops.
Novice Stakes over 7f on standard going. Regal Desire heads our ratings. We rate 5 of the 9 declared; the other 4 lack enough recent form for us to judge.
How we rate the field
1
Regal Desire
Cam Hardie / Brian Ellison
4/1
- Averages a 96% price drop, though on limited recent form.
- Rated 2nd of 9 on published form ratings.
- Back after 74 days, well beyond its usual 33-day gap.
2/1 to 5/1: 21.0% win, 40.2% frame (739 tracked)
2
Hozam
William Pyle / Kevin & Lauren Frost
5/1
- Averages a 88% price drop, though on limited recent form.
- Rated 4th of 9 on published form ratings.
- Back after 69 days, well beyond its usual 27-day gap.
5/1 to 8/1: 12.7% win, 29.5% frame (684 tracked)
3
Rua Mor
Jonny Peate / Sam England
34/1
- Its price has been shortening harder each run across its last 5, averaging a 16% drop.
- Rated 6th of 9 on published form ratings.
- Back after 96 days, well beyond its usual 46-day gap.
- Carries 8lb less than last time.
20/1 to 50/1: 2.0% win, -43% return over 1,150 tracked. Our weakest band.
Not rated: Ceo Stealth Mode, Janora, Reformation, Whatever Bruce — too little recent form to judge.