17:15 Newcastle tips
Novice Stakesclass 45fstandard6 runners
What we lean towardsclear pick
Qila is our standout. It rates well clear of the rest, mainly on the size of its price drops.
Novice Stakes over 5f on standard going. Qila rates clear of the rest on our signals. We rate 5 of the 6 declared; the other 1 lack enough recent form for us to judge.
How we rate the field
1
Qila
Harry Russell / Brian Ellison
5/2
- Steady 54% average price drop over its last 5 runs.
- Placed 1 time from 2 runs here on course without winning.
2/1 to 5/1: 21.0% win, 40.2% frame (739 tracked)
2
Sunday River
Tom Kiely-Marshall / Brian Ellison
13/4
- Averages 89% price drift, though on limited recent form.
- Quick turnaround at 22 days against its usual 514.
2/1 to 5/1: 21.0% win, 40.2% frame (739 tracked)
3
Celtic Arrow
Ryan Sexton / Julie Camacho
10/1
- Price drops have been easing off across its last 5 runs, down to a 54% average.
- Placed 2 times from 5 runs here on course and going without winning.
- Quick turnaround at 15 days against its usual 40.
- Carries 5lb less off a 3lb lower mark.
8/1 to 12/1: 8.0% win, 26.8% frame (709 tracked)
Not rated: Nip About — too little recent form to judge.