15:20 Worcester tips
Novice Hurdleclass 42mgood12 runners
What we lean towardspreferred
Baltic is our pick, though Savanna Storm is not far behind. It edges it on coming back at its right interval.
Novice Hurdle over 2m on good going. Baltic heads our ratings. We rate 9 of the 12 declared; the other 3 lack enough recent form for us to judge.
How we rate the field
1
Baltic
Tom Cannon / Lucy Wadham
4/1
- Steady 45% average price drop over its last 5 runs.
2/1 to 5/1: 21.0% win, 40.2% frame (739 tracked)
2
Savanna Storm
Rian Corcoran / David Pipe
41/1
- Averages a 70% price drop, though on limited recent form.
- Quick turnaround at 18 days against its usual 54.
20/1 to 50/1: 2.0% win, -43% return over 1,150 tracked. Our weakest band.
3
Bluey Bay
James Best / Martin Keighley
51/1
- Its price has been shortening harder each run across its last 3, averaging a 55% drop.
- Back after 179 days, well beyond its usual 50-day gap.
50/1 and above: 0.7% win, -58% return over 959 tracked. Our weakest band.
Not rated: Action Replay, Emerald Tir, Sytadel — too little recent form to judge.