19:00 Southwell tips
Novice Stakesclass 47fstandard11 runners
What we lean towardspreferred
Hozam is our pick, though Cloud Forest is not far behind. It edges it on the size of its price drops.
Novice Stakes over 7f on standard going. Hozam heads our ratings. We rate 7 of the 11 declared; the other 4 lack enough recent form for us to judge.
How we rate the field
2
Cloud Forest
William Carson / Saeed bin Suroor
9/4
- Its price has been shortening harder each run across its last 3, averaging a 17% drop.
- Carries 7lb less than last time.
2/1 to 5/1: 21.0% win, 40.2% frame (739 tracked)
3
Talking Bear
Jonny Peate / Richard Phillips
26/1
- Averages a 54% price drop, though on limited recent form.
20/1 to 50/1: 2.0% win, -43% return over 1,150 tracked. Our weakest band.
Not rated: All You Can Be, Big Money, Imperial Ballet, Manjaros Express — too little recent form to judge.