16:52 Southwell tips
Novice Hcap Hurdleclass 52m4½fgood12 runners
What we lean towardsopen race
Too close to split with conviction. Winstons Oath just shades it from Ballylicky Bay on its standing on published form ratings.
Novice Hcap Hurdle over 2m4½f on good going. Winstons Oath and Ballylicky Bay separate by very little. We have enough recent form to rate all 12 declared.
How we rate the field
2
Ballylicky Bay
Bryan Carver / Kevin Pickard
7/1
- Price drops have been easing off across its last 5 runs, down to a 60% average.
- Quick turnaround at 21 days against its usual 60.
5/1 to 8/1: 12.7% win, 29.5% frame (684 tracked)
3
Celine Man
Robert Dunne / J R Jenkins
51/1
- Its price has been shortening harder each run across its last 4, averaging a 24% drop.
- Carries 5lb less off a 4lb lower mark.
50/1 and above: 0.7% win, -58% return over 959 tracked. Our weakest band.